Zagreb Semi-finals

Ivan Ljubicic (CRO)

vs.

Mario Ancic (CRO)

Previous meetings: Ljubicic leads 3-1.

An all Croatian affair in this second semi-final today and whoever emerges the victor will be a big favourite to take the title tomorrow after the mass exodus of seeds in the bottom half. The odds have come out and Ancic has been set as a medium fave at 1.6 with Ljubicic around the 2.5-2.6 mark. I must admit I was surprised by these odds, I thought they would be set much closer. Seems to me people may be over-reacting slightly with the whole Ancic comeback thing... Yeah we all know he’s potentially a fantastic player, but he's not fully fit yet and you can’t expect him to be back to his best already. He hasn't been tested by a player with the experience of someone like Ivan yet, both Mahut and Haase failed to capitalise on their chances and Gremelmayr was very poor.

Ljubicic has actually impressed me this week, he always plays well in Zagreb and is seeking to reach his 3^rd consecutive final in a row here. He’s averaging 70% 1^st serves in and 80% service points won overall and breaking him looks like mission impossible. Gaba had to pull off two stunning passing shots just to get to 15-40 on a Ljubo service game (the only two BPs he's faced all week) and even then the mission was far from accomplished as the big man promptly saved both with 2 service winners. Even his ground game is looking better than it has in a long time with his backhand showing flashes of its brilliant form of old, and with his own serve completely dominant I would rate him as being more likely to get the crucial break (Ancic has been broken twice already this week).

And if, as is very probable, it goes to tiebreaks, Ljubo actually has a superior tiebreak record to Ancic and has a knack for coming through on the most important points, thanks to his experience. In any case if it does go to a TB, a point or two here and there will decide it, so Ljubo at 2.6 is great value to me anyway. Good luck.

Ljubicic to beat Ancic @ 2.60 (4 units to win 6.4 units) WIN

Result: Ljubicic def. Ancic 7-6(2) 6-4.

Acapulco Second Round

Draw
OOP
Livescores




Agustin Calleri (ARG)

vs.

Juan Ignacio Chela (ARG)

Previous meetings: Calleri leads 9-4.



Battle of two former winners of the Mexican Open in Acapulco (in fact Chela is the defending champion), both who have impressive records here: 14-4 for Calleri in 5 visits and Chela is 16-5. All Argentine encounters are usually tight and nervy affairs as the players know each other inside out, but Calleri has had the upper hand in most of the recent meetings with Chela. He has won 4 of their last 5 matches on clay, and the one loss actually came here in Acapulco last year when he was leading 6-4 5-5 before pulling his hamstring and having to retire... Chela took full advantage of that bit of luck and went on to win the title. I expect that incident will still be on Calleri's mind and he will be determined to put things right and finish the job he should have a year ago.

Matchup-wise this match is very much dependent on Calleri, he will be the one calling the shots here. Chela has been dreadful so far in 2008 and may be desperate to regain some confidence at an event he clearly likes, but if Calleri is firing he has enough firepower to hit right through consistent baseliners who just hit the ball back to him as indicated by his recent wins over the likes of Robredo, Hewitt, Monaco or Ferrer. The temperatures have been high in Acapulco which will make the clay faster to play on and that has to favour the more aggressive Calleri who will look to finish points off early when he can. As the slight underdog he is at a great price although those odds have already come in since I took them, but anything around evens is worth a shot as I believe Calleri should be the favourite in this one. Good luck.

Calleri to beat Chela @ 2.10 (5 units to win 5.5 units) WIN

Result: Calleri def. Chela 7-6(4) 2-6 6-1.

Zagreb Second Round

Draw
OOP
Livescores



Zagreb plays on a super-fast low bouncing indoor synthetic surface which normally favours the big servers.



Teimuraz Gabashvili (RUS)

vs.

Rik de Voest (RSA)

Previous meetings: Never played.

Gabashvili is a very hot and cold player, sure he has shown good form in the last 10 days with a good run in Rotterdam and a straight sets win yesterday, albeit against Florian Mayer who is having a torrid time anyway. But consistency remains a missing factor for him. He is a brutish power hitter who packs a punch but doesn’t do a lot of thinking on court and it goes without saying these are exactly the type of players who will struggle with consistency, on a good day they can blow most players off the court but on a bad one they will be an unforced error machine who pretty much beat themselves. Perhaps he has the potential to one day become a regular in the top 80 but right now he still has a lot of developing to do in terms of his game and especially his on-court tactics.

Rik De Voest is ranked 10 places behind Gaba and mainly plays in challengers, but he is a pretty useful player with top 100 aspirations and after an impressive straight sets win over an in-form Seppi yesterday should see this as a big chance to make his first ATP quarter-final. He possesses a decent serve and boasts an excellent 18-5 tiebreak record over the last 12 months, so, should one of the sets reach the almost inevitable lottery of the tiebreak, that confidence he has built up could give him the slight edge. At odds of 3.00 he represents good value against a player who isn’t the most reliable; Gaba has failed to back up big wins and good form many times, and this kind of match where he has the pressure of being expected to win has seen him falter in the past. I’m hoping today will be another of those occasions. Good luck.

De Voest to beat Gabashvili @ 3.00 (3 units to win 6 units) LOSS

Result: Gabashvili def. De Voest 7-5 6-1. Looks like Gabashvili had his head screwed on today, never mind it was worth a shot. You won't go bankrupt fading Gaba all season that's for sure.

Memphis First Round

Draw
OOP
Livescores



Memphis plays on a fast, low-bouncing indoor plexiplave hardcourt which favours big servers with offensive games; Tommy Haas won it last year without even facing a single break point and previous winners also include Joachim Johansson, Taylor Dent, Philippoussis and Roddick.



Jurgen Melzer (AUT)

vs.

John Isner (USA)

Previous meetings: never played.

Former number 1 US college tennis player John Isner is becoming a regular in these smaller American hardcourt events and his run in San Jose last week has placed him in the top 100 for the first time in his career. So it was no suprise that he received a wildcard into the main draw here this week. His game is always dangerous if predictable, you know what you are going to get with him and what you aren’t; what you aren’t going to get is many chances to break or opportunities on his first serve.

Later tonight he will be first up in the afternoon session against Jurgen Melzer. Now on first glance with the crowd behind him and that gigantic serve you’d think this is a very winnable round for him against the #61 player in the world who hasn’t had any impressive results at ATP tour level in a long time… And in fact the bookmakers seem to agree with that, as Isner is just favourite by the slightest of margins.

However I think this match-up is very much balanced the other way. The bookmakers are ignoring how good Melzer is at frustrating huge servers, as illustrated by his 5-0 record over Dr Ivo (11-0 in sets) and other positive H2Hs he holds over the likes of Guccione, Ljubicic and Berdych. Against Ivo in particular he keeps the returns low and right back at the server’s feet, and in general is crafty enough to exploit the poor mobility of the taller players with slices, dropshots etc. Also being a lefty becomes a factor as it is much easier for a left-hander to serve to the backhand which is a big weakness for Isner, and I suspect Melzer will also target that side whenever he can in any baseline exchange.

Of course Melzer is not exactly the most mentally stable of players and with this being such a fast court the lottery of tiebreaks is almost certain to decide at least one of the sets so only medium stakes on this one for me, but everything points to the Austrian being the more likely player to get the crucial break or mini-break if in a TB, and as a slight underdog the value is surely with him. Good luck.

Melzer to beat Isner @ 2.10 (5 units to win 5.5 units) WIN

Result: Melzer def. Isner 6-7(8) 6-3 7-6(4)