February 18, 2008

San Jose First Round

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (ESP) vs Jurgen Melzer (AUT)

GGL is far from being the most accomplished of hardcourters but at the same time he is no mug on hard, and isn't just your typical Spanish claycourter, as many seem to believe. He does ply his trade mainly from the baseline but is a crisp striker of the ball and can play a very attacking puncher style if he's in the mood. He clearly likes hardcourt enough to have chosen to play the American hardcourt swing instead of the South American claycourt season, and in fact played Delray Beach last week so will be slightly more accustomed to the surface than Melzer who spent last week recuperating from a disappointing Davis Cup tie on clay, where he couldn't quite finish off Andy Roddick despite having many chances.

That match showed just how bad Melzer's temperament can be and perfectly illustrated why he will never get much higher than around the 50 mark. The left-handed Austrian can be his own worst enemy at times, just like his compatriot Koubek, and this kind of match where he is the comfortable favourite with the bookies are just the ones he struggles to win. GGL actually beat a leftie in Delray Beach last week in Odesnik, before going down in 3 sets to Querrey in what was a good display. He also beat Falla fairly comfortably at the AO, so the lefties do not seem to pose any particular difficulty to his game. I'm going with the value here and hoping GGL has a good day and Melzer's brain will be MIA like it is in just about 75% of his matches....

GGL to beat Melzer @ 2.70 (5 units to win 8.5 units) WIN

Result: Garcia-Lopez def. Melzer 6-2 6-7(5) 7-6(6)

No comments: