Buenos Aires Quarter-finals

OOP

Draw




Nicolas Almagro (ESP)

vs.

Juan Ignacio Chela (ARG)

Previous meetings: tied 1-1.

Nicolas Almagro’s confidence will be sky high heading into this match on the back of 9 consecutive wins, and as I said last week, his claycourt form has really lit up the South American season this month. Of course there is the risk that his tired legs may start to feel the effects of his recent efforts, including two 2-hour matches so far in Bs As. But to me the fact that he backed up his Brasil Open title last week with a couple more hard-fought wins in the heat of the Argentine summer suggests he isn’t just here to make up the numbers and has matured since the days he would play well one week and tank the next.

Nico did have a day off yesterday and this match being scheduled for the evening session may be an advantage, but in any case he is better than Chela in every department right now and I expect him to be able to hit right through that skinny Argentine pusher from the baseline. Adrenaline alone should pull him through at this stage. Chela has had lacklustre results since his decent run at the USO, losing to the likes of Mayer, Fognini and perhaps most interestingly to GGL at the AO, a player who has a similar style of play to Almagro. The one thing on Iggy’s side will be the boisterous home crowd, but he has never played particularly well at his home event and actually lost to Almagro here last year at the exact same stage of the tournament… Time for history to repeat itself tonight and I’m pounding these odds at maximum stake. Good luck.

Almagro to beat Chela @ 1.74 (10 units to win 7.4 units) VOID

Result: Chela def. Almagro 6-3 2-1 ret.

San Jose Second Round

OOP

Draw





Tommy Haas (GER)

vs.

John Isner (USA)

Previous meetings: Isner leads 1-0.


I'm still a little stunned by all the huge upsets in Rotterdam and yet again missing out on all of them (except Haase) so I think I'll just concentrate on the SAP Open from now on, and try to make some easy cash with some of the match-ups there. The first one that caught my eye is Tommy Haas placed as medium fave against that 6ft9 giant John Isner, who defeated him during his great Washington run last year. In fact Haas has struggled against such giant servers in the past, having lost his last 3 encounters with Dr Ivo Karlovic. The pace and angle they generate from such heights is notoriously difficult to read and once a volatile player like Haas gets frustrated and loses patience at never being able to get a sniff on his opponent's service games, it will usually lead to a loss if his opponent can keep his head.
Haas has jokingly admitted in the past that he thought "the ATP should ban all players over 6ft6", and when you consider the fact he has recently had shoulder surgery, looked rusty against Kendrick last night, suffered the embarassment of losing to Hartfield and was ripped a new one by Sampras all in the last 10 days, he is well worth a fade against an opponent he clearly doesn't enjoy playing and who has had decent showings in these small American tournaments since last summer. Let's go Big John Isner, let's make some sweet money cash today!!

Isner to beat Haas @ 2.30 (6 units to win 7.8) WIN

Result: Isner def. Haas 4-6 7-6(6) 6-3.

Rotterdam First Round

Rotterdam First Round:

OOP
Draw

Jarkko Nieminen (FIN)

vs.

Fernando Verdasco (ESP)

Previous meetings: Nieminen leads 2-1.

Nieminen’s defeat to Söderling in Marseille last week is looking less and less embarrassing every day as the Sod has since gone on to back it up with wins over Gasquet and Baghdatis. Apart from that minor blip, the Flying Finn has had a fairly decent start to 2008 with a final in Adelaide and a quarter-final at the AO, and will look to get back on track this week. Verdasco is yet to win more than one match at the same event this year and made the very strange decision of playing in Viña del Mar only to come back to Europe two weeks later to play in this event…

I see this match-up strongly in Jarkko’s favour, not only does he have the much better record when facing a fellow lefty, but his consistent baseline game should eventually induce errors from the more flamboyant Verdasco whose UE count can reach huge numbers when not playing well. Despite possessing obvious talent and the ability to hit through even the best of baseliners, Verdasco only pulls off such matches once in a blue moon, his on-court mentality has a tendency to be shaky, particularly when he goes in the lead, and when you have a match-up between a consistent, tenacious fighter and a weak-minded headcase like Verdasco, the fighter takes it in the majority of cases. Anything above 1.60 would have been a reasonable price for the Shark but at 1.70 that is more than acceptable for me.

Nieminen to beat Verdasco @ 1.70 (8 units to win 5.6 units) LOSS

Result: Verdasco def. Nieminen 6-2 6-2, what a waste of time.

Rafael Nadal (ESP)

vs.

Dmitry Tursunov (RUS)

Previous meetings: Never played.

I think this one is fairly self-explanatory, powerful flat-hitters like Tursunov have exactly the right game to expose Nadal’s weaknesses on fast indoor courts like Rotterdam’s. If Tursunov turns up, in other words if the barrage of huge shots he will torpedo at Rafa land in more often than out, then Nadal will be forced to retrieve low-bouncing balls which he hates. He has a huge swing on his groundstrokes so needs to be way behind the baseline on low-bouncing courts anyway, and all this adds up to the simple truth that when a big hitter perforates through his defence, he is utterly outplayed and all he can do is hang on with nothing other than fighting spirit. We’ve seen time and time again that he has no answers against big hitters on hardcourts, so until he proves otherwise it goes without saying this one is worth a shot. Nadal only wins difficult matches on hard because he is such a damn good competitor, rather than through using any great tennis ability. Whether Tursunov's mental strength will stand the test is the key to this one...

Tursunov has already picked up a title this year but followed that up with a disappointing AO, a big match like this is exactly what he needs to win to advance to the next level and truly make a name for himself, and he has all the tools to do so. We’ll just need a bit of luck here and for the blogmeister to take his chances when they come.

Tursunov to beat Nadal @ 4.50 (4 units to win 14 units) LOSS

Result: Nadal def. Tursunov 6-4 6-4

Andy Murray (GBR)

vs.

Robin Haase (NED)

Previous meetings: Never played.

I’m simply going for this one because the odds are way too good to turn down, and backing players whose price you think are over the odds is a good strategy in the long run. I’m an admirer of Murray’s game when he is not playing too defensively, he has a lot of variety, lot of tactical nous, pretty much every shot that's in the book and even some that aren't sometimes, and indeed he fares well against loose cannon types like Haase. The Scot is one of the best returners in the men’s game, taking the ball early to put the server on the back foot so Haase’s delivery will have to be at its best.

But going deep in back-to-back weeks is never easy at this level, and the fact Haase is playing at home is another big factor. His win in doubles today over the number 1 seeds Nestor/Zimonjic (partnering Wessels) can only be a good sign, and he should be motivated to put on as good a performance as he can and if the crowd can lift him he will make it competitive at least. I’m also hoping Murray’s renowned dislike of early morning matches will see him have a slow start and that Ruud van Nistelrooy's long-lost twin brother there will take advantage ;)

Haase to beat Murray @ 6.00 (2 units to win 10 units) WIN

Result: Haase def. Murray 7-5 6-3.

San Jose First Round

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (ESP) vs Jurgen Melzer (AUT)

GGL is far from being the most accomplished of hardcourters but at the same time he is no mug on hard, and isn't just your typical Spanish claycourter, as many seem to believe. He does ply his trade mainly from the baseline but is a crisp striker of the ball and can play a very attacking puncher style if he's in the mood. He clearly likes hardcourt enough to have chosen to play the American hardcourt swing instead of the South American claycourt season, and in fact played Delray Beach last week so will be slightly more accustomed to the surface than Melzer who spent last week recuperating from a disappointing Davis Cup tie on clay, where he couldn't quite finish off Andy Roddick despite having many chances.

That match showed just how bad Melzer's temperament can be and perfectly illustrated why he will never get much higher than around the 50 mark. The left-handed Austrian can be his own worst enemy at times, just like his compatriot Koubek, and this kind of match where he is the comfortable favourite with the bookies are just the ones he struggles to win. GGL actually beat a leftie in Delray Beach last week in Odesnik, before going down in 3 sets to Querrey in what was a good display. He also beat Falla fairly comfortably at the AO, so the lefties do not seem to pose any particular difficulty to his game. I'm going with the value here and hoping GGL has a good day and Melzer's brain will be MIA like it is in just about 75% of his matches....

GGL to beat Melzer @ 2.70 (5 units to win 8.5 units) WIN

Result: Garcia-Lopez def. Melzer 6-2 6-7(5) 7-6(6)

Costa do Sauipe Final

Nicolas Almagro (ESP)

vs

Carlos Moya (ESP)

Previous meetings: Moya leads 2-1

Scheduled for 4:30 PM local time, 7:30 PM GMT

Nicolas Almagro is one of the most offensive-minded claycourters around with an extremely potent 1^st serve and huge firepower from both wings. What has been holding him back from breaking into the top 25 is his lack of patience and mental resolve, as well as his poor defensive game. But when he is in the zone he can beat almost anyone on a clay court. On his way to the final he has beaten some genuine claycourters like Massu, Pashanski, Fognini and Volandri who give very little away. This should be taken as a sign that he is hitting the ball great this week, because if a player like him is under-par against such consistent grinders then he will lose more often that now. But he has blitzed his way past his opponents with some extremely impressive stats in every round (averaging 73% points won on serve, 7 aces per match and has been routinely destroying his opponent’s 2^nd serve throughout, particularly 18/19 points won off Fognini’s!). Oh and Nico is a career 35-25 against fellow Spaniards. Alright now I’m just showing off with these stats but basically Nico is on fire... he is serving consistently well, striking the ball sweetly, going for aggressive returns and making them.

Of course Carlos “senior citizen” Moya with all the experience he possesses and that ever-dangerous forehand can never be underestimated, but his performances have not exactly been stellar, he’s dropped a set in all of his 4 matches thus far and against mediocre opposition (Ventura, Patience, Hernandez and Lapentti) and was only two points from being 5-1 down in the final set against Hernandez. This does show he is taking this tournament at least a little seriously and fighting hard but if he struggles against such players, an in-form Almagro should see him off. Moya’s backhand is a weakness and Nico will look to attack whenever he can, and should get plenty of joy from any backhand-to-backhand rallies as he has one of the best attacking topspin single-handers around, possibly only second to Gasquet. Everything points towards Almagro taking his 3^rd title tonight, perhaps it seems almost too obvious and I’ve been burnt many times before when putting my faith in him, but I really think he will deliver this time. Vamos Nico, let’s send this old chump back to the rest home!

Almagro to beat Moya @ 1.60 (10 units to win 6 units) WIN

Result: Almagro def. Moya 7-6(4) 3-6 7-5