Rotterdam First Round

Rotterdam First Round:

OOP
Draw

Jarkko Nieminen (FIN)

vs.

Fernando Verdasco (ESP)

Previous meetings: Nieminen leads 2-1.

Nieminen’s defeat to Söderling in Marseille last week is looking less and less embarrassing every day as the Sod has since gone on to back it up with wins over Gasquet and Baghdatis. Apart from that minor blip, the Flying Finn has had a fairly decent start to 2008 with a final in Adelaide and a quarter-final at the AO, and will look to get back on track this week. Verdasco is yet to win more than one match at the same event this year and made the very strange decision of playing in Viña del Mar only to come back to Europe two weeks later to play in this event…

I see this match-up strongly in Jarkko’s favour, not only does he have the much better record when facing a fellow lefty, but his consistent baseline game should eventually induce errors from the more flamboyant Verdasco whose UE count can reach huge numbers when not playing well. Despite possessing obvious talent and the ability to hit through even the best of baseliners, Verdasco only pulls off such matches once in a blue moon, his on-court mentality has a tendency to be shaky, particularly when he goes in the lead, and when you have a match-up between a consistent, tenacious fighter and a weak-minded headcase like Verdasco, the fighter takes it in the majority of cases. Anything above 1.60 would have been a reasonable price for the Shark but at 1.70 that is more than acceptable for me.

Nieminen to beat Verdasco @ 1.70 (8 units to win 5.6 units) LOSS

Result: Verdasco def. Nieminen 6-2 6-2, what a waste of time.

Rafael Nadal (ESP)

vs.

Dmitry Tursunov (RUS)

Previous meetings: Never played.

I think this one is fairly self-explanatory, powerful flat-hitters like Tursunov have exactly the right game to expose Nadal’s weaknesses on fast indoor courts like Rotterdam’s. If Tursunov turns up, in other words if the barrage of huge shots he will torpedo at Rafa land in more often than out, then Nadal will be forced to retrieve low-bouncing balls which he hates. He has a huge swing on his groundstrokes so needs to be way behind the baseline on low-bouncing courts anyway, and all this adds up to the simple truth that when a big hitter perforates through his defence, he is utterly outplayed and all he can do is hang on with nothing other than fighting spirit. We’ve seen time and time again that he has no answers against big hitters on hardcourts, so until he proves otherwise it goes without saying this one is worth a shot. Nadal only wins difficult matches on hard because he is such a damn good competitor, rather than through using any great tennis ability. Whether Tursunov's mental strength will stand the test is the key to this one...

Tursunov has already picked up a title this year but followed that up with a disappointing AO, a big match like this is exactly what he needs to win to advance to the next level and truly make a name for himself, and he has all the tools to do so. We’ll just need a bit of luck here and for the blogmeister to take his chances when they come.

Tursunov to beat Nadal @ 4.50 (4 units to win 14 units) LOSS

Result: Nadal def. Tursunov 6-4 6-4

Andy Murray (GBR)

vs.

Robin Haase (NED)

Previous meetings: Never played.

I’m simply going for this one because the odds are way too good to turn down, and backing players whose price you think are over the odds is a good strategy in the long run. I’m an admirer of Murray’s game when he is not playing too defensively, he has a lot of variety, lot of tactical nous, pretty much every shot that's in the book and even some that aren't sometimes, and indeed he fares well against loose cannon types like Haase. The Scot is one of the best returners in the men’s game, taking the ball early to put the server on the back foot so Haase’s delivery will have to be at its best.

But going deep in back-to-back weeks is never easy at this level, and the fact Haase is playing at home is another big factor. His win in doubles today over the number 1 seeds Nestor/Zimonjic (partnering Wessels) can only be a good sign, and he should be motivated to put on as good a performance as he can and if the crowd can lift him he will make it competitive at least. I’m also hoping Murray’s renowned dislike of early morning matches will see him have a slow start and that Ruud van Nistelrooy's long-lost twin brother there will take advantage ;)

Haase to beat Murray @ 6.00 (2 units to win 10 units) WIN

Result: Haase def. Murray 7-5 6-3.