Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (ESP) vs Jurgen Melzer (AUT)
GGL is far from being the most accomplished of hardcourters but at the same time he is no mug on hard, and isn't just your typical Spanish claycourter, as many seem to believe. He does ply his trade mainly from the baseline but is a crisp striker of the ball and can play a very attacking puncher style if he's in the mood. He clearly likes hardcourt enough to have chosen to play the American hardcourt swing instead of the South American claycourt season, and in fact played Delray Beach last week so will be slightly more accustomed to the surface than Melzer who spent last week recuperating from a disappointing Davis Cup tie on clay, where he couldn't quite finish off Andy Roddick despite having many chances.
That match showed just how bad Melzer's temperament can be and perfectly illustrated why he will never get much higher than around the 50 mark. The left-handed Austrian can be his own worst enemy at times, just like his compatriot Koubek, and this kind of match where he is the comfortable favourite with the bookies are just the ones he struggles to win. GGL actually beat a leftie in Delray Beach last week in Odesnik, before going down in 3 sets to Querrey in what was a good display. He also beat Falla fairly comfortably at the AO, so the lefties do not seem to pose any particular difficulty to his game. I'm going with the value here and hoping GGL has a good day and Melzer's brain will be MIA like it is in just about 75% of his matches....
GGL to beat Melzer @ 2.70 (5 units to win 8.5 units) WIN
Result: Garcia-Lopez def. Melzer 6-2 6-7(5) 7-6(6)
February 18, 2008
February 17, 2008
Costa do Sauipe Final
Nicolas Almagro (ESP)
vs
Carlos Moya (ESP)
Previous meetings: Moya leads 2-1
Scheduled for 4:30 PM local time, 7:30 PM GMT
Nicolas Almagro is one of the most offensive-minded claycourters around with an extremely potent 1st serve and huge firepower from both wings. What has been holding him back from breaking into the top 25 is his lack of patience and mental resolve, as well as his poor defensive game. But when he is in the zone he can beat almost anyone on a clay court. On his way to the final he has beaten some genuine claycourters like Massu, Pashanski, Fognini and Volandri who give very little away. This should be taken as a sign that he is hitting the ball great this week, because if a player like him is under-par against such consistent grinders then he will lose more often that now. But he has blitzed his way past his opponents with some extremely impressive stats in every round (averaging 73% points won on serve, 7 aces per match and has been routinely destroying his opponent’s 2nd serve throughout, particularly 18/19 points won off Fognini’s!). Oh and Nico is a career 35-25 against fellow Spaniards. Alright now I’m just showing off with these stats but basically Nico is on fire... he is serving consistently well, striking the ball sweetly, going for aggressive returns and making them.
Of course Carlos “senior citizen” Moya with all the experience he possesses and that ever-dangerous forehand can never be underestimated, but his performances have not exactly been stellar, he’s dropped a set in all of his 4 matches thus far and against mediocre opposition (Ventura, Patience, Hernandez and Lapentti) and was only two points from being 5-1 down in the final set against Hernandez. This does show he is taking this tournament at least a little seriously and fighting hard but if he struggles against such players, an in-form Almagro should see him off. Moya’s backhand is a weakness and Nico will look to attack whenever he can, and should get plenty of joy from any backhand-to-backhand rallies as he has one of the best attacking topspin single-handers around, possibly only second to Gasquet. Everything points towards Almagro taking his 3rd title tonight, perhaps it seems almost too obvious and I’ve been burnt many times before when putting my faith in him, but I really think he will deliver this time. Vamos Nico, let’s send this old chump back to the rest home!
Almagro to beat Moya @ 1.60 (10 units to win 6 units) WINResult: Almagro def. Moya 7-6(4) 3-6 7-5
February 16, 2008
Delray Beach Semi-finals
Scheduled for 2:oo PM EST (7:oo PM GMT)
Querrey of course has a huge serve and powerful groundstrokes going for him and his stats were impressive against Spadea in the quarters (10 aces, 75% of service points won, not a single BP faced). But Nishikori is clearly in good form himself having qualified for this event, and won 6 matches in total for the loss of only one set which was in a tiebreak. Over that period of time he has only dropped serve twice, an extremely impressive feat considering he is still relatively small in size and his serve is not the biggest. This tells me he possesses a good deal of mental consistency that is usually rare in such an inexperienced player.
He is extremely quick and a great retriever, and will hold the advantage over Querrey in that he is the smarter match-player. Nishikori will keep bringing balls back until Querrey either makes an error or produces a great shot. Chances are he will make the error more often than he will successfully hit the special shot. Both these youngsters are gunning for a 1st ATP final, so motivation for both is not in question, however the value is definitely with the Japanese player in this one.
Nishikori to beat Querrey @ 3.25 (4 units to win 9 units) WIN
Result: Nishikori def. Querrey 4-6 6-2 7-6(7), 4 match points saved.
James Blake (USA) vs Robby Ginepri (USA)
All-American encounters are usually unpredictable affairs, as seen already this week with some very up and down matches between Ginepri and Russell, Ginepri and Fish or Delic and Young. Blake is rightfully favourite and the 5-2 head-to-head record in his favour shows he has the upper hand, but at odds of 1.30 there really is no value and Ginepri may have the extra motivation after the torrid time he has had of late (he is now ranked 169!). Neither of these two are the most astute of tacticians on-court and this is definitely one I will gladly swerve.
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